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Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 · Spain
Gévora vs Llerenense prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gévora host Llerenense in the Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 (Spain) on 11 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.85, which the bookmaker market rated at about 53% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gévora 1–2 Llerenense.
Going into the match, Gévora had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 16. Llerenense had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 9, with 10 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Gévora's last 10 and 4 of Llerenense's last 9; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gévora averaged 2.50 goals scored and 1.25 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Llerenense averaged 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.99 goals from Gévora and 1.34 from Llerenense. From that it rates a home win at 26%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 44%, against 33%, 26% and 41% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gévora (green) and Llerenense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gévora | DWDWL | 1.30 | 1.60 | 60% | 60% |
| Llerenense | DWWWW | 1.11 | 1.11 | 44% | 33% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.39 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.85 |
| Llerenense Win | 35% | 2.20 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.40 |
| 1-1 | 13% | 7.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.