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Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 · Spain
Gernika vs Sestao River prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Gernika host Sestao River in the Segunda División RFEF - Group 1 (Spain) on 4 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Gernika 1–2 Sestao River.
Going into the match, Gernika had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 0 of their last 8 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 5. Sestao River had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Gernika's last 8 and 4 of Sestao River's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Gernika averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.75 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Sestao River averaged 0.88 scored and 1.00 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Gernika and 0.89 from Sestao River. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 29%, against 36%, 30% and 34% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Gernika (green) and Sestao River (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gernika | DWWDD | 1.75 | 0.63 | 50% | 50% |
| Sestao River | WWLWW | 1.40 | 0.70 | 40% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.28 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.55 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Gernika Win | 36% | 2.50 |
| Draw | 30% | 3.00 |
| 0-0 | 16% | 6.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.