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K4 League · South Korea
Geoje Citizen vs Pyeongtaek Citizen prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Geoje Citizen host Pyeongtaek Citizen in the K4 League (South Korea) on 11 Oct 2026, 05:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Geoje Citizen 3–0 Pyeongtaek Citizen.
Going into the match, Geoje Citizen had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Pyeongtaek Citizen had won 1, drawn 3 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 22 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Geoje Citizen's last 10 and 6 of Pyeongtaek Citizen's last 10; 6 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Geoje Citizen averaged 3.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Pyeongtaek Citizen averaged 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.39 goals from Geoje Citizen and 1.03 from Pyeongtaek Citizen. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 14%, against 55%, 21% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Geoje Citizen (green) and Pyeongtaek Citizen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoje Citizen | DWWLL | 1.30 | 1.40 | 40% | 60% |
| Pyeongtaek Citizen | WDDLL | 1.50 | 2.20 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Pyeongtaek Citizen 2–3 Geoje Citizen
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.43 |
| Geoje Citizen Win | 58% | 1.65 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 53% | 1.73 |
| Geoje Citizen HT & FT | 37% | 2.50 |
| 2-1 | 9% | 10.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.