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Serie A · Italy
Genoa vs Fiorentina prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Genoa host Fiorentina in the Serie A (Italy) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Genoa 2–1 Fiorentina.
Going into the match, Genoa had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 24. Fiorentina had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Genoa's last 10 and 6 of Fiorentina's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Genoa averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.55 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Fiorentina averaged 1.33 scored and 2.11 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.05 goals from Genoa and 1.65 from Fiorentina. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 50%, against 29%, 29% and 42% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Genoa (green) and Fiorentina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Genoa | LLWDL | 0.90 | 2.40 | 50% | 40% |
| Fiorentina | DWWLL | 1.70 | 1.60 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 May 2026 · Fiorentina 0–0 Genoa
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| Double Chance X2 | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.10 |
| Fiorentina Win | 41% | 2.25 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.