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FAI Cup · Ireland
Galway United vs Derry City prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Galway United host Derry City in the FAI Cup (Ireland) on 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Galway United 0–2 Derry City.
Going into the match, Galway United had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Derry City had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Galway United's last 10 and 6 of Derry City's last 10; 4 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Galway United averaged 1.46 goals scored and 1.46 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Derry City averaged 1.40 scored and 1.67 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.51 goals from Galway United and 1.47 from Derry City. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 36%, against 30%, 28% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Galway United (green) and Derry City (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galway United | DLWLW | 1.30 | 1.10 | 80% | 40% |
| Derry City | WDWWD | 1.90 | 1.50 | 60% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Sep 2026 · Derry City 1–0 Galway United
- 19 Jun 2026 · Galway United 2–1 Derry City
- 4 May 2026 · Derry City 1–1 Galway United
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 61% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 50% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.