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Süper Lig · Turkey
Galatasaray vs Kasımpaşa prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Galatasaray host Kasımpaşa in the Süper Lig (Turkey) on 9 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Galatasaray 3–1 Kasımpaşa.
Going into the match, Galatasaray had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 21 and conceding 21. Kasımpaşa had won 4, drawn 6 and lost 0 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Galatasaray's last 10 and 6 of Kasımpaşa's last 10; 9 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Galatasaray averaged 1.64 goals scored and 1.73 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Kasımpaşa averaged 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.60 goals from Galatasaray and 1.28 from Kasımpaşa. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 30%, against 74%, 17% and 9% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 55%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Galatasaray (green) and Kasımpaşa (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galatasaray | DLWLW | 2.10 | 2.10 | 70% | 90% |
| Kasımpaşa | DWDDW | 1.50 | 0.70 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 17 May 2026 · Kasımpaşa 1–0 Galatasaray
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Galatasaray Win | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Galatasaray 1st Half Win | 57% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Galatasaray HT & FT | 55% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.