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Copa Venezuela · Venezuela
Fundación Lara Deportiva vs Aragua FC prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fundación Lara Deportiva host Aragua FC in the Copa Venezuela (Venezuela) on 7 Oct 2026, 22:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 2.10, which the bookmaker market rated at about 45% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fundación Lara Deportiva 1–4 Aragua FC.
Going into the match, Fundación Lara Deportiva had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 17. Aragua FC had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Fundación Lara Deportiva's last 10 and 6 of Aragua FC's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fundación Lara Deportiva averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.36 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Aragua FC averaged 1.18 scored and 1.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.22 goals from Fundación Lara Deportiva and 1.84 from Aragua FC. From that it rates a home win at 24%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 51%, against 37%, 26% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 59%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fundación Lara Deportiva (green) and Aragua FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fundación Lara Deportiva | LWWWD | 1.70 | 1.70 | 60% | 70% |
| Aragua FC | WDWWD | 1.50 | 1.00 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 19 Aug 2026 · Aragua FC 0–1 Fundación Lara Deportiva
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 68% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 65% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 52% | 1.76 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
| Fundación Lara Deportiva Win | 37% | 2.40 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.