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Bundesliga · Germany
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FSV Mainz 05 host Bayer Leverkusen in the Bundesliga (Germany) on 10 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FSV Mainz 05 3–4 Bayer Leverkusen.
Going into the match, FSV Mainz 05 had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 32 and conceding 10. Bayer Leverkusen had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 24 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of FSV Mainz 05's last 10 and 5 of Bayer Leverkusen's last 10; 8 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FSV Mainz 05 averaged 1.91 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Bayer Leverkusen averaged 2.50 scored and 1.30 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.95 goals from FSV Mainz 05 and 1.50 from Bayer Leverkusen. From that it rates a home win at 47%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 29%, against 32%, 25% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 68%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FSV Mainz 05 (green) and Bayer Leverkusen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | WWLWD | 3.20 | 1.00 | 40% | 80% |
| Bayer Leverkusen | WWDWL | 2.40 | 0.90 | 50% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.33 |
| BTTS Yes | 67% | 1.40 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 66% | 1.44 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.