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3. liga - MSFL · Czech Republic
Frýdek-Místek vs Vrchovina prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Frýdek-Místek host Vrchovina in the 3. liga - MSFL (Czech Republic) on 3 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Frýdek-Místek Win — Frýdek-Místek to win. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 59% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Frýdek-Místek 4–2 Vrchovina.
Going into the match, Frýdek-Místek had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 8. Vrchovina had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Frýdek-Místek's last 10 and 4 of Vrchovina's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Frýdek-Místek averaged 1.75 goals scored and 0.67 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Vrchovina averaged 1.08 scored and 2.00 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.22 goals from Frýdek-Místek and 0.88 from Vrchovina. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 13%, against 59%, 22% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Frýdek-Místek (green) and Vrchovina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frýdek-Místek | LDWDW | 1.50 | 0.80 | 40% | 40% |
| Vrchovina | WDLLL | 1.10 | 1.60 | 40% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Apr 2026 · Frýdek-Místek 1–1 Vrchovina
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 69% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 64% | 1.43 |
| Frýdek-Místek Win | 59% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.81 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
| Frýdek-Místek HT & FT | 41% | 2.25 |
| 1-0 | 12% | 8.00 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.