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UEFA Nations League · International
France vs Italy prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
France host Italy in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is France Win — France to win. It was published at odds of 1.45, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: France 1–1 Italy.
Going into the match, France had won 8, drawn 0 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 10. Italy had won 3, drawn 0 and lost 1 of their last 4, with 6 scored and 3 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of France's last 10 and 1 of Italy's last 4; 5 and 1 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home France averaged 2.38 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Italy averaged 2.00 scored and 0.33 conceded across 3.
The 1X2 prices imply about 64% for France, 19% for the draw and 17% for Italy once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between France (green) and Italy (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| France Win | 64% | 1.45 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.