Home › League stats › UEFA Nations League › France vs Belgium
UEFA Nations League · International
France vs Belgium prediction and preview
5 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
France host Belgium in the UEFA Nations League (International) on 5 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.48, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: France 4–1 Belgium.
Going into the match, France had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 20 and conceding 10. Belgium had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of France's last 10 and 5 of Belgium's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home France averaged 2.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Belgium averaged 2.80 scored and 0.80 conceded across 5.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.47 goals from France and 1.30 from Belgium. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 32%, against 62%, 20% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between France (green) and Belgium (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 28 Sep 2026 · Belgium 0–1 France
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.48 |
| France Win | 62% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.