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Serie B · Brazil
Fortaleza EC vs Nautico Recife prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 00:35 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fortaleza EC host Nautico Recife in the Serie B (Brazil) on 3 Oct 2026, 00:35 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fortaleza EC 1–1 Nautico Recife.
Going into the match, Fortaleza EC had won 4, drawn 6 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 7. Nautico Recife had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Fortaleza EC's last 10 and 7 of Nautico Recife's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fortaleza EC averaged 1.72 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Nautico Recife averaged 1.21 scored and 1.64 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.49 goals from Fortaleza EC and 0.72 from Nautico Recife. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 17%, against 59%, 26% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 82%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fortaleza EC (green) and Nautico Recife (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fortaleza EC | DWDWW | 1.20 | 0.70 | 60% | 20% |
| Nautico Recife | WLDLW | 1.40 | 1.30 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 10 Jun 2026 · Nautico Recife 0–1 Fortaleza EC
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Fortaleza EC Win | 59% | 1.62 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS No | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.