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Serie C - Girone B · Italy
Forli vs Livorno prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Forli host Livorno in the Serie C - Girone B (Italy) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.28, which the bookmaker market rated at about 72% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Forli 1–1 Livorno.
Going into the match, Forli had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 15 and conceding 15. Livorno had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Forli's last 10 and 5 of Livorno's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Forli averaged 1.67 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Livorno averaged 0.50 scored and 0.83 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.45 goals from Forli and 1.40 from Livorno. From that it rates a home win at 37%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 35%, against 38%, 29% and 33% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 79%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Forli (green) and Livorno (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 72% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 72% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 59% | 1.56 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 52% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.