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Canadian Premier League · Canada
Forge vs HFX Wanderers FC prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Forge host HFX Wanderers FC in the Canadian Premier League (Canada) on 3 Oct 2026, 20:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Forge 3–3 HFX Wanderers FC.
Going into the match, Forge had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 9. HFX Wanderers FC had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 17 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Forge's last 10 and 6 of HFX Wanderers FC's last 10; 3 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Forge averaged 1.69 goals scored and 0.54 conceded across 13 matches; away from home HFX Wanderers FC averaged 1.25 scored and 2.00 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.17 goals from Forge and 0.78 from HFX Wanderers FC. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 11%, against 62%, 22% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 80%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Forge (green) and HFX Wanderers FC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forge | DDWWD | 1.40 | 0.90 | 60% | 30% |
| HFX Wanderers FC | LWWLL | 1.70 | 1.80 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 3 Aug 2026 · HFX Wanderers FC 0–0 Forge
- 11 Jun 2026 · Forge 1–0 HFX Wanderers FC
- 9 May 2026 · Forge 4–0 HFX Wanderers FC
- 2 May 2026 · HFX Wanderers FC 1–3 Forge
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 78% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Forge Win | 62% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.