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National League · England
Forest Green vs Hartlepool prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Forest Green host Hartlepool in the National League (England) on 10 Oct 2026, 16:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Forest Green 2–4 Hartlepool.
Going into the match, Forest Green had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 16. Hartlepool had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 9 of their last 10, with 4 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Forest Green's last 10 and 3 of Hartlepool's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Forest Green averaged 2.08 goals scored and 2.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Hartlepool averaged 1.27 scored and 2.00 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.06 goals from Forest Green and 1.04 from Hartlepool. From that it rates a home win at 60%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 17%, against 57%, 23% and 20% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Forest Green (green) and Hartlepool (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forest Green | DDLDW | 1.40 | 1.60 | 60% | 60% |
| Hartlepool | LLLLL | 0.40 | 1.60 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 18 Apr 2026 · Hartlepool 2–1 Forest Green
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Forest Green Win | 57% | 1.62 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.