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Serie C - Girone A · Italy
Folgore Caratese vs Desenzano Calvina prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Folgore Caratese host Desenzano Calvina in the Serie C - Girone A (Italy) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Folgore Caratese 1–2 Desenzano Calvina.
Going into the match, Folgore Caratese had won 1, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 12. Desenzano Calvina had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 7 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Folgore Caratese's last 10 and 3 of Desenzano Calvina's last 10; 4 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Folgore Caratese averaged 1.86 goals scored and 1.29 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Desenzano Calvina averaged 1.18 scored and 0.36 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.75 goals from Folgore Caratese and 1.12 from Desenzano Calvina. From that it rates a home win at 23%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 43%, against 42%, 30% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Folgore Caratese (green) and Desenzano Calvina (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Folgore Caratese | WDDLL | 1.00 | 1.20 | 70% | 40% |
| Desenzano Calvina | DDLWL | 0.50 | 0.70 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 1X | 70% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Folgore Caratese Win | 42% | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 41% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.