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CONMEBOL Libertadores · International
Fluminense vs Palmeiras prediction and preview
15 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fluminense host Palmeiras in the CONMEBOL Libertadores (International) on 15 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 55% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fluminense 1–2 Palmeiras.
Going into the match, Fluminense had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 12. Palmeiras had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 5 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Fluminense's last 10 and 3 of Palmeiras's last 10; 6 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fluminense averaged 1.95 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Palmeiras averaged 1.56 scored and 0.83 conceded across 18.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from Fluminense and 1.14 from Palmeiras. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 38%, against 33%, 31% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fluminense (green) and Palmeiras (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | LWWLL | 1.80 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
| Palmeiras | WWDLW | 1.40 | 0.50 | 30% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 Aug 2026 · Fluminense 3–2 Palmeiras
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 68% | 1.36 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.48 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.67 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 38% | 2.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 36% | 2.60 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.