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Serie A · Brazil
Fluminense vs Coritiba prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fluminense host Coritiba in the Serie A (Brazil) on 9 Oct 2026, 00:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fluminense 4–0 Coritiba.
Going into the match, Fluminense had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 17 and conceding 13. Coritiba had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Fluminense's last 10 and 7 of Coritiba's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fluminense averaged 1.83 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 18 matches; away from home Coritiba averaged 1.00 scored and 1.80 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.39 goals from Fluminense and 0.94 from Coritiba. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 12%, against 65%, 22% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fluminense (green) and Coritiba (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fluminense | WLLWW | 1.70 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
| Coritiba | LDLWW | 1.30 | 1.90 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Fluminense Win | 65% | 1.45 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.62 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.80 |
| Over 10.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.