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Ligue 3 · France
Fleury 91 vs Caen prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fleury 91 host Caen in the Ligue 3 (France) on 3 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.20, which the bookmaker market rated at about 78% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fleury 91 3–2 Caen.
Going into the match, Fleury 91 had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 15. Caen had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Fleury 91's last 10 and 4 of Caen's last 10; 6 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fleury 91 averaged 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Caen averaged 1.86 scored and 1.43 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.59 goals from Fleury 91 and 1.97 from Caen. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 46%, against 37%, 27% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 88%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fleury 91 (green) and Caen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.65 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.