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EFL Trophy · England
Fleetwood Town vs Barnsley prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fleetwood Town host Barnsley in the EFL Trophy (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fleetwood Town 4–1 Barnsley.
Going into the match, Fleetwood Town had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 11. Barnsley had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 21 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Fleetwood Town's last 10 and 7 of Barnsley's last 10; 4 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fleetwood Town averaged 1.42 goals scored and 0.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Barnsley averaged 1.21 scored and 1.21 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.49 goals from Fleetwood Town and 1.04 from Barnsley. From that it rates a home win at 68%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 13%, against 27%, 24% and 50% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fleetwood Town (green) and Barnsley (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fleetwood Town | LLLLW | 1.30 | 1.10 | 50% | 40% |
| Barnsley | LDDLL | 1.60 | 2.10 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 76% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.