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Serie A · Brazil
Flamengo vs Fluminense prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Flamengo host Fluminense in the Serie A (Brazil) on 11 Oct 2026, 20:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Flamengo 1–0 Fluminense.
Going into the match, Flamengo had won 7, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 18 and conceding 8. Fluminense had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Flamengo's last 10 and 7 of Fluminense's last 10; 6 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Flamengo averaged 2.11 goals scored and 0.84 conceded across 19 matches; away from home Fluminense averaged 1.00 scored and 1.31 conceded across 16.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.85 goals from Flamengo and 0.76 from Fluminense. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 14%, against 65%, 22% and 13% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 73%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Flamengo (green) and Fluminense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Flamengo | DWDWW | 1.80 | 0.80 | 60% | 60% |
| Fluminense | WWLLW | 2.10 | 1.30 | 70% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 13 Apr 2026 · Fluminense 1–2 Flamengo
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 80% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Flamengo Win | 65% | 1.45 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.70 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.