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A Lyga · Lithuania
FK Zalgiris Vilnius vs Hegelmann Litauen prediction and preview
18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FK Zalgiris Vilnius host Hegelmann Litauen in the A Lyga (Lithuania) on 18 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.53, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FK Zalgiris Vilnius 4–1 Hegelmann Litauen.
Going into the match, FK Zalgiris Vilnius had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 16. Hegelmann Litauen had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 2 of FK Zalgiris Vilnius's last 10 and 7 of Hegelmann Litauen's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FK Zalgiris Vilnius averaged 2.47 goals scored and 1.53 conceded across 15 matches; away from home Hegelmann Litauen averaged 1.00 scored and 2.07 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.52 goals from FK Zalgiris Vilnius and 1.13 from Hegelmann Litauen. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 14%, against 65%, 20% and 15% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FK Zalgiris Vilnius (green) and Hegelmann Litauen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius | WLLWD | 1.20 | 1.60 | 20% | 50% |
| Hegelmann Litauen | DDLDD | 1.10 | 1.90 | 70% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jul 2026 · Hegelmann Litauen 2–3 FK Zalgiris Vilnius
- 24 May 2026 · FK Zalgiris Vilnius 1–3 Hegelmann Litauen
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| FK Zalgiris Vilnius Win | 66% | 1.36 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| Under 10.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.