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Premier League · Kazakhstan
FK Tobol Kostanay vs FC Astana prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FK Tobol Kostanay host FC Astana in the Premier League (Kazakhstan) on 10 Oct 2026, 11:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 58% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FK Tobol Kostanay 2–1 FC Astana.
Going into the match, FK Tobol Kostanay had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 15. FC Astana had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 21 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FK Tobol Kostanay's last 10 and 6 of FC Astana's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FK Tobol Kostanay averaged 1.62 goals scored and 1.15 conceded across 13 matches; away from home FC Astana averaged 1.17 scored and 1.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.27 goals from FK Tobol Kostanay and 1.28 from FC Astana. From that it rates a home win at 35%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 36%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 53%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FK Tobol Kostanay (green) and FC Astana (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Tobol Kostanay | LWWLW | 1.40 | 1.50 | 50% | 50% |
| FC Astana | WLWWD | 2.10 | 1.00 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 29 Apr 2026 · FC Astana 1–2 FK Tobol Kostanay
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.32 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.45 |
| BTTS Yes | 58% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 46% | 2.05 |
| FC Astana Win | 43% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.