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First League · Russia
FK Neftekhimik vs Chelyabinsk prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FK Neftekhimik host Chelyabinsk in the First League (Russia) on 9 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 62% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FK Neftekhimik 2–4 Chelyabinsk.
Going into the match, FK Neftekhimik had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 7 and conceding 13. Chelyabinsk had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of FK Neftekhimik's last 10 and 6 of Chelyabinsk's last 10; 2 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FK Neftekhimik averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.18 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Chelyabinsk averaged 0.75 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.16 goals from FK Neftekhimik and 1.24 from Chelyabinsk. From that it rates a home win at 33%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 37%, against 37%, 33% and 30% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FK Neftekhimik (green) and Chelyabinsk (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Neftekhimik | LLDWL | 0.70 | 1.30 | 30% | 20% |
| Chelyabinsk | DWDWL | 1.10 | 1.50 | 60% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 May 2026 · Chelyabinsk 2–0 FK Neftekhimik
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 69% | 1.37 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.48 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.54 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.71 |
| FK Neftekhimik Win | 37% | 2.60 |
| Under 1.5 Goals | 37% | 2.63 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.