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Virsliga · Latvia
FK Liepaja vs Tukums prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FK Liepaja host Tukums in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 24 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FK Liepaja had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 12. Tukums had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of FK Liepaja's last 10 and 4 of Tukums's last 10; 7 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FK Liepaja averaged 1.88 goals scored and 1.06 conceded across 16 matches; away from home Tukums averaged 1.00 scored and 2.57 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.32 goals from FK Liepaja and 0.94 from Tukums. From that it rates a home win at 67%, a draw at 20% and an away win at 13%, against 61%, 20% and 19% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FK Liepaja (green) and Tukums (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | WLDDD | 1.60 | 1.20 | 60% | 70% |
| Tukums | LLDLW | 0.60 | 1.80 | 40% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Aug 2026 · Tukums 2–1 FK Liepaja
- 30 May 2026 · FK Liepaja 3–0 Tukums
- 17 Apr 2026 · Tukums 2–2 FK Liepaja
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.21 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 74% | 1.23 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| FK Liepaja Win | 62% | 1.48 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.56 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 57% | 1.60 |
| FK Liepaja HT & FT | 42% | 2.20 |
| 2-1 | 11% | 8.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.