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Virsliga · Latvia
FK Liepaja vs Auda prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FK Liepaja host Auda in the Virsliga (Latvia) on 12 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 66% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FK Liepaja 2–3 Auda.
Going into the match, FK Liepaja had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 12. Auda had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of FK Liepaja's last 10 and 5 of Auda's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FK Liepaja averaged 1.79 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 14 matches; away from home Auda averaged 1.47 scored and 1.47 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.33 goals from FK Liepaja and 1.19 from Auda. From that it rates a home win at 39%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 32%, against 43%, 24% and 32% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FK Liepaja (green) and Auda (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Liepaja | DDDWL | 1.40 | 1.20 | 60% | 60% |
| Auda | DWDWD | 1.40 | 1.20 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 25 Aug 2026 · Auda 1–0 FK Liepaja
- 11 Jul 2026 · Auda 1–0 FK Liepaja
- 22 May 2026 · Auda 3–1 FK Liepaja
- 8 Apr 2026 · FK Liepaja 1–2 Auda
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.62 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.