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Serie A Women · Italy
Fiorentina W vs Sassuolo W prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fiorentina W host Sassuolo W in the Serie A Women (Italy) on 3 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.22, which the bookmaker market rated at about 77% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fiorentina W 2–0 Sassuolo W.
Going into the match, Fiorentina W had won 4, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 8 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Sassuolo W had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 9, with 11 scored and 15 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Fiorentina W's last 8 and 4 of Sassuolo W's last 9; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fiorentina W averaged 1.75 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 4 matches; away from home Sassuolo W averaged 1.75 scored and 0.50 conceded across 4.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.98 goals from Fiorentina W and 1.23 from Sassuolo W. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 22%, against 61%, 23% and 16% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 84%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fiorentina W (green) and Sassuolo W (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiorentina W | LLWLW | 1.50 | 1.63 | 63% | 75% |
| Sassuolo W | LLWWW | 1.22 | 1.67 | 44% | 56% |
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 23 Aug 2026 · Fiorentina W 1–2 Sassuolo W
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 77% | 1.22 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.49 |
| Fiorentina W Win | 61% | 1.48 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.70 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.10 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.