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First Division · Ireland
Finn Harps vs Kerry prediction and preview
2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Finn Harps host Kerry in the First Division (Ireland) on 2 Oct 2026, 18:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Finn Harps 1–2 Kerry.
Going into the match, Finn Harps had won 1, drawn 0 and lost 9 of their last 10 matches, scoring 10 and conceding 28. Kerry had won 5, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Finn Harps's last 10 and 3 of Kerry's last 10; 8 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Finn Harps averaged 0.62 goals scored and 1.69 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Kerry averaged 0.83 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.82 goals from Finn Harps and 1.57 from Kerry. From that it rates a home win at 18%, a draw at 28% and an away win at 54%, against 25%, 27% and 48% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 70%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Finn Harps (green) and Kerry (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Harps | LLWLL | 1.00 | 2.80 | 50% | 80% |
| Kerry | WLLWW | 1.40 | 1.30 | 30% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Jul 2026 · Kerry 2–1 Finn Harps
- 8 May 2026 · Finn Harps 1–0 Kerry
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 75% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 54% | 1.75 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.83 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
| Kerry Win | 48% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.