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Copa Santa Catarina · Brazil
Figueirense vs Hercílio Luz prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Figueirense host Hercílio Luz in the Copa Santa Catarina (Brazil) on 10 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance X2 — Hercílio Luz to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.67, which the bookmaker market rated at about 54% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Figueirense 1–0 Hercílio Luz.
Going into the match, Figueirense had won 6, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 6. Hercílio Luz had won 8, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Figueirense's last 10 and 6 of Hercílio Luz's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Figueirense averaged 1.09 goals scored and 1.27 conceded across 11 matches; away from home Hercílio Luz averaged 1.64 scored and 0.91 conceded across 11.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.98 goals from Figueirense and 1.20 from Hercílio Luz. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 40%, against 45%, 28% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 71%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Figueirense (green) and Hercílio Luz (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Figueirense | WWWDW | 1.20 | 0.60 | 50% | 40% |
| Hercílio Luz | WLWWW | 2.00 | 1.00 | 60% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.