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Serie D - Girone A · Italy
Fezzanese vs Valenzana prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fezzanese host Valenzana in the Serie D - Girone A (Italy) on 4 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.80, which the bookmaker market rated at about 53% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fezzanese 1–2 Valenzana.
Going into the match, Fezzanese had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 5. Valenzana had won 1, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 9, with 10 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 1 of Fezzanese's last 5 and 6 of Valenzana's last 9; 1 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fezzanese averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded across 2 matches; away from home Valenzana averaged 1.00 scored and 2.67 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.42 goals from Fezzanese and 1.43 from Valenzana. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 37%, against 49%, 26% and 25% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 46%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fezzanese (green) and Valenzana (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 9 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.42 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
| BTTS Yes | 51% | 1.79 |
| Fezzanese Win | 49% | 1.85 |
| Fezzanese HT & FT | 31% | 3.00 |
| Draw | 26% | 3.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.