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Segunda División · Uruguay
Fenix vs Uruguay Montevideo prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fenix host Uruguay Montevideo in the Segunda División (Uruguay) on 4 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Fenix Win — Fenix to win. It was published at odds of 1.57, which the bookmaker market rated at about 57% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fenix 2–0 Uruguay Montevideo.
Going into the match, Fenix had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 19. Uruguay Montevideo had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 9 scored and 14 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Fenix's last 10 and 5 of Uruguay Montevideo's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fenix averaged 1.38 goals scored and 1.15 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Uruguay Montevideo averaged 0.60 scored and 1.30 conceded across 10.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.76 goals from Fenix and 0.89 from Uruguay Montevideo. From that it rates a home win at 57%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 18%, against 57%, 25% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fenix (green) and Uruguay Montevideo (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fenix | LLDWL | 1.40 | 1.90 | 70% | 50% |
| Uruguay Montevideo | LLDLD | 0.90 | 1.40 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 27 Jun 2026 · Uruguay Montevideo 3–2 Fenix
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Fenix Win | 57% | 1.57 |
| BTTS No | 56% | 1.63 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 44% | 2.15 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.