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USL Championship · USA
FC Tulsa vs Sacramento Republic prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Tulsa host Sacramento Republic in the USL Championship (USA) on 4 Oct 2026, 00:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Tulsa 1–1 Sacramento Republic.
Going into the match, FC Tulsa had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 8. Sacramento Republic had won 4, drawn 5 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 9 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of FC Tulsa's last 10 and 5 of Sacramento Republic's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Tulsa averaged 0.92 goals scored and 0.58 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Sacramento Republic averaged 1.00 scored and 1.07 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.97 goals from FC Tulsa and 1.02 from Sacramento Republic. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 34% and an away win at 34%, against 34%, 30% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Tulsa (green) and Sacramento Republic (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Tulsa | WDDLD | 1.20 | 0.80 | 40% | 30% |
| Sacramento Republic | WWDWD | 1.20 | 0.90 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 6 Aug 2026 · FC Tulsa 1–0 Sacramento Republic
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 62% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 60% | 1.57 |
| Under 9.5 Corners | 57% | 1.63 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 40% | 2.35 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.