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2. Bundesliga · Germany
FC St. Pauli vs Karlsruher SC prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC St. Pauli host Karlsruher SC in the 2. Bundesliga (Germany) on 11 Oct 2026, 11:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC St. Pauli 2–0 Karlsruher SC.
Going into the match, FC St. Pauli had won 1, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 17. Karlsruher SC had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of FC St. Pauli's last 10 and 6 of Karlsruher SC's last 10; 5 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC St. Pauli averaged 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home Karlsruher SC averaged 1.14 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.03 goals from FC St. Pauli and 0.97 from Karlsruher SC. From that it rates a home win at 61%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 16%, against 55%, 23% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 58%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC St. Pauli (green) and Karlsruher SC (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC St. Pauli | DDWDL | 1.20 | 1.70 | 80% | 50% |
| Karlsruher SC | WLLDL | 1.10 | 1.90 | 60% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 72% | 1.30 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.44 |
| Under 11.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| FC St. Pauli Win | 55% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.