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3. Liga · Germany
FC Saarbrücken vs MSV Duisburg prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Saarbrücken host MSV Duisburg in the 3. Liga (Germany) on 13 Oct 2026, 17:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Saarbrücken 2–4 MSV Duisburg.
Going into the match, FC Saarbrücken had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 22 and conceding 14. MSV Duisburg had won 7, drawn 1 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 23 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of FC Saarbrücken's last 10 and 7 of MSV Duisburg's last 10; 6 and 9 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Saarbrücken averaged 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded across 10 matches; away from home MSV Duisburg averaged 2.08 scored and 1.17 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.55 goals from FC Saarbrücken and 1.63 from MSV Duisburg. From that it rates a home win at 36%, a draw at 26% and an away win at 39%, against 37%, 26% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 61%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Saarbrücken (green) and MSV Duisburg (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Saarbrücken | DWWDL | 2.20 | 1.40 | 70% | 60% |
| MSV Duisburg | WWWLW | 2.30 | 1.20 | 70% | 90% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| BTTS Yes | 60% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 57% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.