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Premier League · Belarus
FC Gomel vs ML Vitebsk prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Gomel host ML Vitebsk in the Premier League (Belarus) on 11 Oct 2026, 13:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.39, which the bookmaker market rated at about 67% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Gomel 1–5 ML Vitebsk.
Going into the match, FC Gomel had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 6. ML Vitebsk had won 5, drawn 4 and lost 1 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 6 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of FC Gomel's last 10 and 5 of ML Vitebsk's last 10; 3 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Gomel averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.71 conceded across 14 matches; away from home ML Vitebsk averaged 2.00 scored and 1.14 conceded across 14.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.00 goals from FC Gomel and 1.24 from ML Vitebsk. From that it rates a home win at 29%, a draw at 31% and an away win at 40%, against 24%, 29% and 47% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 67%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Gomel (green) and ML Vitebsk (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Gomel | WWLWW | 1.40 | 0.60 | 30% | 30% |
| ML Vitebsk | WDDDW | 1.50 | 0.60 | 50% | 30% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 22 May 2026 · ML Vitebsk 0–0 FC Gomel
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance X2 | 76% | 1.23 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 67% | 1.39 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.61 |
| BTTS No | 53% | 1.74 |
| ML Vitebsk Win | 48% | 1.94 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.26 |
| ML Vitebsk HT & FT | 32% | 2.92 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.