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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
FC Cartagena vs Real Murcia prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Cartagena host Real Murcia in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 7 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Double Chance 1X — FC Cartagena to win or draw. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Cartagena 1–0 Real Murcia.
Going into the match, FC Cartagena had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 13. Real Murcia had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 18 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FC Cartagena's last 10 and 7 of Real Murcia's last 10; 5 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Cartagena averaged 1.86 goals scored and 0.57 conceded across 7 matches; away from home Real Murcia averaged 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded across 12.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.41 goals from FC Cartagena and 0.87 from Real Murcia. From that it rates a home win at 48%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 22%, against 39%, 30% and 31% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 78%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Cartagena (green) and Real Murcia (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cartagena | WLDDW | 1.40 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
| Real Murcia | WLWDL | 1.80 | 1.30 | 70% | 60% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 58% | 1.62 |
| BTTS No | 54% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 42% | 2.25 |
| FC Cartagena Win | 39% | 2.30 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.