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Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Spain
FC Cartagena vs Águilas prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Cartagena host Águilas in the Primera División RFEF - Group 2 (Spain) on 3 Oct 2026, 16:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 2.5 Goals — fewer than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: FC Cartagena 4–1 Águilas.
Going into the match, FC Cartagena had won 3, drawn 3 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 12 and conceding 13. Águilas had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 7 scored and 8 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of FC Cartagena's last 10 and 3 of Águilas's last 10; 5 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Cartagena averaged 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Águilas averaged 0.83 scored and 1.00 conceded across 6.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.76 goals from FC Cartagena and 0.66 from Águilas. From that it rates a home win at 63%, a draw at 25% and an away win at 12%, against 48%, 30% and 22% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 57%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Cartagena (green) and Águilas (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Cartagena | LDDWL | 1.20 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
| Águilas | LDWLD | 0.70 | 0.80 | 30% | 20% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.30 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Over 8.5 Corners | 56% | 1.67 |
| FC Cartagena Win | 48% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.