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Challenge League · Switzerland
FC Aarau vs Étoile Carouge prediction and preview
24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
FC Aarau host Étoile Carouge in the Challenge League (Switzerland) on 24 Oct 2026, 16:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 63% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, FC Aarau had won 3, drawn 2 and lost 5 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 19. Étoile Carouge had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 6 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 9 of FC Aarau's last 10 and 3 of Étoile Carouge's last 10; 9 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home FC Aarau averaged 2.00 goals scored and 1.23 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Étoile Carouge averaged 0.92 scored and 2.54 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.98 goals from FC Aarau and 0.77 from Étoile Carouge. From that it rates a home win at 65%, a draw at 23% and an away win at 13%, against 54%, 23% and 23% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 52%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between FC Aarau (green) and Étoile Carouge (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Aarau | WLLLL | 1.60 | 1.90 | 90% | 90% |
| Étoile Carouge | LLLLD | 0.60 | 1.60 | 30% | 40% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 24 Jul 2026 · Étoile Carouge 3–0 FC Aarau
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 78% | 1.22 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 63% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 57% | 1.62 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
| FC Aarau Win | 54% | 1.70 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.