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Liga I · Romania
Farul Constanta vs Petrolul Ploiesti prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Farul Constanta host Petrolul Ploiesti in the Liga I (Romania) on 11 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.40, which the bookmaker market rated at about 68% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Farul Constanta 3–1 Petrolul Ploiesti.
Going into the match, Farul Constanta had won 3, drawn 5 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 13 and conceding 14. Petrolul Ploiesti had won 5, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Farul Constanta's last 10 and 5 of Petrolul Ploiesti's last 10; 5 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Farul Constanta averaged 1.33 goals scored and 1.08 conceded across 12 matches; away from home Petrolul Ploiesti averaged 1.53 scored and 1.73 conceded across 15.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.62 goals from Farul Constanta and 0.93 from Petrolul Ploiesti. From that it rates a home win at 53%, a draw at 27% and an away win at 20%, against 49%, 27% and 24% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 75%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Farul Constanta (green) and Petrolul Ploiesti (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farul Constanta | WLWDD | 1.30 | 1.40 | 60% | 50% |
| Petrolul Ploiesti | LWWDW | 1.60 | 1.30 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance 1X | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 68% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| BTTS Yes | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.80 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.