Home › League stats › Segunda Liga › Farense vs Chaves
Segunda Liga · Portugal
Farense vs Chaves prediction and preview
4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Farense host Chaves in the Segunda Liga (Portugal) on 4 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Farense 4–0 Chaves.
Going into the match, Farense had won 4, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 8. Chaves had won 3, drawn 1 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 18 conceded.
Both teams scored in 6 of Farense's last 10 and 6 of Chaves's last 10; 4 and 6 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Farense averaged 1.13 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Chaves averaged 1.44 scored and 1.78 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.89 goals from Farense and 0.80 from Chaves. From that it rates a home win at 62%, a draw at 24% and an away win at 14%, against 43%, 29% and 28% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 72%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Farense (green) and Chaves (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 1X | 71% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 54% | 1.73 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.95 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.