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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Famalicao vs Arouca prediction and preview
6 Nov 2026, 20:45 UTC · Estadio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicao
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Famalicao host Arouca in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 6 Nov 2026, 20:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Going into the match, Famalicao had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 14 and conceding 14. Arouca had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 15 scored and 10 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Famalicao's last 10 and 4 of Arouca's last 10; 6 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Famalicao averaged 1.15 goals scored and 0.92 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Arouca averaged 1.08 scored and 1.15 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.88 goals from Famalicao and 0.98 from Arouca. From that it rates a home win at 30%, a draw at 35% and an away win at 35%, against 46%, 27% and 26% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 88%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Famalicao (green) and Arouca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 22 Jul 2026 · Famalicao 0–0 Arouca
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 1X | 73% | 1.28 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 53% | 1.75 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.90 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 49% | 1.90 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.