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Primeira Liga · Portugal
Famalicao vs Alverca prediction and preview
12 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Famalicao host Alverca in the Primeira Liga (Portugal) on 12 Oct 2026, 19:15 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 1.5 Goals — more than 1.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.30, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Famalicao 1–4 Alverca.
Going into the match, Famalicao had won 1, drawn 6 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 11 and conceding 10. Alverca had won 4, drawn 2 and lost 4 of their last 10, with 12 scored and 12 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Famalicao's last 10 and 5 of Alverca's last 10; 4 and 4 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Famalicao averaged 1.15 goals scored and 0.69 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Alverca averaged 0.63 scored and 1.25 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 0.80 goals from Famalicao and 0.81 from Alverca. From that it rates a home win at 31%, a draw at 38% and an away win at 31%, against 51%, 28% and 21% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Famalicao (green) and Alverca (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 16 May 2026 · Famalicao 1–0 Alverca
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 73% | 1.33 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 71% | 1.30 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 67% | 1.40 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 53% | 1.75 |
| Famalicao Win | 50% | 1.85 |
| BTTS Yes | 50% | 1.91 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 47% | 2.05 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.