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Youth Championship · Russia
Fakel U19 vs Chertanovo U20 prediction and preview
9 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fakel U19 host Chertanovo U20 in the Youth Championship (Russia) on 9 Oct 2026, 12:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Over 2.5 Goals — more than 2.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.41, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fakel U19 2–1 Chertanovo U20.
Going into the match, Fakel U19 had won 0, drawn 4 and lost 6 of their last 10 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 18. Chertanovo U20 had won 2, drawn 1 and lost 7 of their last 10, with 14 scored and 23 conceded.
Both teams scored in 5 of Fakel U19's last 10 and 7 of Chertanovo U20's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fakel U19 averaged 1.00 goals scored and 1.85 conceded across 13 matches; away from home Chertanovo U20 averaged 1.44 scored and 2.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.41 goals from Fakel U19 and 1.22 from Chertanovo U20. From that it rates a home win at 40%, a draw at 29% and an away win at 31%, against 31%, 26% and 43% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 49%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fakel U19 (green) and Chertanovo U20 (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel U19 | LLLDD | 0.60 | 1.80 | 50% | 40% |
| Chertanovo U20 | WLLLW | 1.40 | 2.30 | 70% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 15 May 2026 · Chertanovo U20 2–1 Fakel U19
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.21 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 71% | 1.30 |
| BTTS Yes | 66% | 1.39 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 64% | 1.41 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 56% | 1.65 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 55% | 1.67 |
| Over 3.5 Goals | 44% | 2.06 |
| Chertanovo U20 Win | 43% | 2.09 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.