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Persian Gulf Pro League · Iran
Fajr Sepasi vs Aluminium Arak prediction and preview
13 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fajr Sepasi host Aluminium Arak in the Persian Gulf Pro League (Iran) on 13 Oct 2026, 13:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS No — at least one side to fail to score. It was published at odds of 1.49, which the bookmaker market rated at about 61% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fajr Sepasi 2–1 Aluminium Arak.
Going into the match, Fajr Sepasi had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 2 of their last 7 matches, scoring 4 and conceding 9. Aluminium Arak had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 0 of their last 7, with 9 scored and 4 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Fajr Sepasi's last 7 and 3 of Aluminium Arak's last 7; 1 and 2 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fajr Sepasi averaged 0.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded across 3 matches; away from home Aluminium Arak averaged 2.00 scored and 0.33 conceded across 3.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.03 goals from Fajr Sepasi and 1.10 from Aluminium Arak. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 36%, against 33%, 32% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 56%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fajr Sepasi (green) and Aluminium Arak (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fajr Sepasi | LLDDW | 0.57 | 1.29 | 43% | 14% |
| Aluminium Arak | DDWDW | 1.29 | 0.57 | 43% | 29% |
Averages over each side's last 7 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 76% | 1.20 |
| Double Chance 12 | 70% | 1.30 |
| BTTS No | 61% | 1.49 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 60% | 1.53 |
| Draw | 31% | 2.82 |
| Fajr Sepasi HT & FT | 29% | 3.20 |
| Aluminium Arak Win | 27% | 2.50 |
| 0-1 | 17% | 5.45 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.