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Emperor Cup · Japan
Fagiano Okayama vs JEF United Chiba prediction and preview
7 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fagiano Okayama host JEF United Chiba in the Emperor Cup (Japan) on 7 Oct 2026, 10:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.36, which the bookmaker market rated at about 69% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fagiano Okayama 1–0 JEF United Chiba.
Going into the match, Fagiano Okayama had won 6, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 11. JEF United Chiba had won 2, drawn 2 and lost 6 of their last 10, with 11 scored and 19 conceded.
Both teams scored in 7 of Fagiano Okayama's last 10 and 5 of JEF United Chiba's last 10; 8 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fagiano Okayama averaged 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded across 10 matches; away from home JEF United Chiba averaged 1.23 scored and 2.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.25 goals from Fagiano Okayama and 0.75 from JEF United Chiba. From that it rates a home win at 71%, a draw at 19% and an away win at 10%, against 58%, 24% and 18% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 65%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fagiano Okayama (green) and JEF United Chiba (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fagiano Okayama | WLWWW | 1.60 | 1.10 | 70% | 80% |
| JEF United Chiba | LLDWW | 1.10 | 1.90 | 50% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 Sep 2026 · JEF United Chiba 1–2 Fagiano Okayama
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 77% | 1.22 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 75% | 1.25 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 69% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| Fagiano Okayama Win | 58% | 1.55 |
| BTTS No | 52% | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.