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Liga 3 · Portugal
Fafe vs Trofense prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Fafe host Trofense in the Liga 3 (Portugal) on 11 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Fafe Win — Fafe to win. It was published at odds of 1.60, which the bookmaker market rated at about 60% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Fafe 2–2 Trofense.
Going into the match, Fafe had won 5, drawn 3 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 16 and conceding 8. Trofense had won 1, drawn 4 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 5 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Fafe's last 10 and 4 of Trofense's last 10; 5 and 3 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Fafe averaged 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded across 5 matches; away from home Trofense averaged 0.43 scored and 1.71 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.89 goals from Fafe and 0.55 from Trofense. From that it rates a home win at 69%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 9%, against 56%, 27% and 17% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 69%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Fafe (green) and Trofense (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 75% | 1.25 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 70% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 64% | 1.44 |
| Fafe Win | 59% | 1.60 |
| BTTS No | 55% | 1.66 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 55% | 1.73 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 45% | 2.08 |
| Fafe HT & FT | 39% | 2.40 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.