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League Two · England
Exeter City vs Rotherham prediction and preview
3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Exeter City host Rotherham in the League Two (England) on 3 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.33, which the bookmaker market rated at about 71% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Exeter City 1–0 Rotherham.
Going into the match, Exeter City had won 2, drawn 4 and lost 4 of their last 10 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 8. Rotherham had won 2, drawn 5 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 13 scored and 16 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Exeter City's last 10 and 8 of Rotherham's last 10; 2 and 5 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Exeter City averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded across 8 matches; away from home Rotherham averaged 1.15 scored and 1.08 conceded across 13.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.26 goals from Exeter City and 0.50 from Rotherham. From that it rates a home win at 54%, a draw at 32% and an away win at 14%, against 36%, 29% and 36% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 90%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Exeter City (green) and Rotherham (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | LDDLW | 0.80 | 0.80 | 30% | 20% |
| Rotherham | DDWDL | 1.30 | 1.60 | 80% | 50% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 78% | 1.20 |
| Over 1.5 Goals | 73% | 1.28 |
| Double Chance 12 | 71% | 1.33 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 71% | 1.33 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 68% | 1.36 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 66% | 1.40 |
| BTTS Yes | 56% | 1.67 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 51% | 1.85 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.