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EFL Trophy · England
Exeter City vs Oxford United prediction and preview
6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Exeter City host Oxford United in the EFL Trophy (England) on 6 Oct 2026, 18:00 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is Under 3.5 Goals — fewer than 3.5 goals in the match. It was published at odds of 1.44, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Exeter City 2–2 Oxford United.
Going into the match, Exeter City had won 3, drawn 4 and lost 3 of their last 10 matches, scoring 9 and conceding 7. Oxford United had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10, with 20 scored and 11 conceded.
Both teams scored in 3 of Exeter City's last 10 and 6 of Oxford United's last 10; 2 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Exeter City averaged 1.22 goals scored and 0.78 conceded across 9 matches; away from home Oxford United averaged 1.50 scored and 1.38 conceded across 8.
Our team-strength model expects about 1.17 goals from Exeter City and 1.28 from Oxford United. From that it rates a home win at 32%, a draw at 30% and an away win at 38%, against 24%, 27% and 49% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 77%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Exeter City (green) and Oxford United (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Exeter City | WLDDL | 0.90 | 0.70 | 30% | 20% |
| Oxford United | DWWLW | 2.00 | 1.10 | 60% | 70% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Goals | 78% | 1.20 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 77% | 1.22 |
| Double Chance X2 | 76% | 1.20 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 72% | 1.30 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 65% | 1.44 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| BTTS Yes | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 56% | 1.67 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.