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Eredivisie · Netherlands
Excelsior vs Groningen prediction and preview
11 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Excelsior host Groningen in the Eredivisie (Netherlands) on 11 Oct 2026, 14:45 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.50, which the bookmaker market rated at about 64% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Excelsior 1–5 Groningen.
Going into the match, Excelsior had won 6, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 10 matches, scoring 28 and conceding 14. Groningen had won 4, drawn 3 and lost 3 of their last 10, with 16 scored and 17 conceded.
Both teams scored in 8 of Excelsior's last 10 and 6 of Groningen's last 10; 10 and 7 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Excelsior averaged 2.17 goals scored and 1.33 conceded across 6 matches; away from home Groningen averaged 1.43 scored and 2.14 conceded across 7.
Our team-strength model expects about 2.15 goals from Excelsior and 1.92 from Groningen. From that it rates a home win at 44%, a draw at 22% and an away win at 35%, against 37%, 26% and 37% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 76%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Excelsior (green) and Groningen (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 2 May 2026 · Groningen 2–3 Excelsior
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Double Chance 12 | 74% | 1.28 |
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 74% | 1.25 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.50 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 61% | 1.53 |
| Under 3.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 59% | 1.57 |
| Over 9.5 Corners | 50% | 1.83 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.