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Derde Divisie · Netherlands
Excelsior Maassluis vs TOGB prediction and preview
10 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC
The PunterPick prediction
Published before kick-off and never changed afterwards. See the methodology for how picks are chosen.
Match preview
Excelsior Maassluis host TOGB in the Derde Divisie (Netherlands) on 10 Oct 2026, 12:30 UTC. The prediction PunterPick published for this fixture is BTTS Yes — both teams to score. It was published at odds of 1.43, which the bookmaker market rated at about 65% once the bookmaker margin is removed.
Final score: Excelsior Maassluis 3–2 TOGB.
Going into the match, Excelsior Maassluis had won 6, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 10 matches, scoring 19 and conceding 6. TOGB had won 2, drawn 3 and lost 5 of their last 10, with 19 scored and 26 conceded.
Both teams scored in 4 of Excelsior Maassluis's last 10 and 8 of TOGB's last 10; 4 and 8 of those matches respectively went over 2.5 goals. At home Excelsior Maassluis averaged 2.08 goals scored and 0.83 conceded across 12 matches; away from home TOGB averaged 1.00 scored and 1.67 conceded across 9.
Our team-strength model expects about 3.07 goals from Excelsior Maassluis and 1.07 from TOGB. From that it rates a home win at 77%, a draw at 14% and an away win at 9%, against 49%, 22% and 29% implied by the 1X2 prices. For the published pick itself the model gives 63%.
Team comparison
Share of each factor between Excelsior Maassluis (green) and TOGB (grey), from our data provider's pre-match comparison.
Form before the match
| Team | Last 5 | Scored | Conceded | BTTS | O2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Excelsior Maassluis | WWWWW | 1.90 | 0.60 | 40% | 40% |
| TOGB | WWLLL | 1.90 | 2.60 | 80% | 80% |
Averages over each side's last 10 matches in our results archive before this fixture.
Recent meetings
- 11 Jul 2026 · Excelsior Maassluis 3–0 TOGB
Other markets we priced
| Market | Our probability | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1st Half Over 0.5 Goals | 75% | 1.22 |
| BTTS 1st Half - No | 73% | 1.26 |
| Double Chance 1X | 72% | 1.28 |
| BTTS Yes | 64% | 1.43 |
| Over 2.5 Goals | 63% | 1.50 |
| 1st Half Under 1.5 Goals | 56% | 1.64 |
| Excelsior Maassluis Win | 49% | 1.83 |
| Under 2.5 Goals | 37% | 2.50 |
Probabilities are derived from bookmaker prices with the margin removed. They are estimates, not guarantees.